New survey finds majority support for millionaire tax as Trump remains deeply unpopular in New York
New Siena Poll Maps New York’s Political Landscape Eight Weeks Into Mamdani’s Term
A new Siena University poll released March 4, 2026 offers a snapshot of New York political sentiment across multiple fronts: the governor’s race, Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s early standing, and President Donald Trump’s persistent unpopularity in the state. Conducted February 23-26 among 805 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points, the poll provides one of the first systematic readings of how New Yorkers are responding to Mamdani’s opening weeks in office.
Hochul Leads Blakeman, But by a Narrower Margin
Governor Kathy Hochul maintains a 20-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, among registered voters, with numbers at 51 to 31 percent. That margin has narrowed from 26 points in January, a shift Siena pollster Steven Greenberg attributed partly to Republicans rallying behind Blakeman and some tightening among men and downstate suburban voters. Blakeman has a recognition problem: 61 percent of voters either have not heard of him or hold no opinion. His favorability has barely budged from January. Hochul’s own approval rating sits at 53 to 41 percent and her favorability at 46 to 42 percent, down slightly from 49 to 40 percent two months ago.
Mamdani’s Favorability and Tax Plan Draw Broad Support
Mamdani holds a 47 to 35 percent favorability rating, a modest softening from 48 to 32 percent in January. Voters support his proposal to raise personal income taxes on New York City residents earning at least $1 million by a 54 to 29 percent margin. The proposal finds backing across geography and party in complex ways. Democrats support it 72 to 13 percent. New York City voters favor it 62 to 21 percent. Even downstate suburban voters support it 50 to 32 percent, and upstate voters support it 48 to 35 percent. Independents split nearly evenly and Republicans oppose it 51 to 36 percent. Greenberg noted that while Republicans disagree, voters overall prefer raising income taxes on millionaires to Mamdani’s alternative fallback of raising property taxes on all city property owners.
Neither Hochul Nor State Legislature Have Supported the Millionaire Tax
Despite the public appetite revealed in the poll, Hochul and state legislators have not voiced support for Mamdani’s millionaire tax proposal. That political gap between public opinion and legislative action is not unusual, particularly on tax policy where organized opposition from high-income residents and business groups tends to exert disproportionate influence on Albany. Research from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy consistently finds that millionaire tax proposals poll well nationally, but face structural resistance in legislatures where wealthy donors hold significant influence.
Trump Remains Deeply Unpopular in New York
President Trump receives a job approval rating of 36 to 61 percent among New York voters, a slight uptick from 34 to 63 percent in January. Sixty percent of respondents said Trump has done a poor job of lowering the cost of living. He received between 30 and 34 percent excellent or good ratings on defending the Constitution, managing trade and tariff policies, enhancing America’s reputation abroad, and energy policy. On immigration enforcement, opinion is more divided. Support for deporting immigrants living in the U.S. illegally grew to 49 to 29 percent, up from 43 to 35 percent in January. Greenberg noted that voters are roughly evenly split on whether Trump has done a good job securing the border. The Siena Research Institute has conducted New York public opinion polling for decades and is widely regarded as a credible barometer of state political sentiment. The overall picture the poll paints is of a New York electorate that broadly favors Mamdani’s early agenda while remaining skeptical of both the Republican challenger to Hochul and the president’s record on cost-of-living issues that have become central to New York politics.
