MTA CEO Janno Lieber, a $600 million revenue gap, and a governor who says not yet
The Ride That Started It All
On January 4, 2026, the day new MTA fare hikes took effect raising subway and bus fares to $3.00, Mayor Zohran Mamdani was riding the Q70 bus in Jackson Heights. The Q70 is the only free bus in New York City, running from Roosevelt Avenue directly to LaGuardia Airport. Mamdani rode it, spoke with commuters, and posted about the experience. What was clear right away, he wrote, was the relief this one bus line gives working class New Yorkers. The contrast was intentional. One city bus, free. Every other bus, $3.00 more expensive than when Mamdani took office. His campaign promise: make them all free.
The Revenue Problem
Eliminating fares on New York City buses would cost the MTA approximately $600 million to $654 million per year in lost fare revenue. That is the number every policy analyst, transit expert, and MTA official reaches when they model the proposal. MTA CEO Janno Lieber, who has called free buses an idea with a lot of issues, has been consistent: he supports the vision in principle but requires a replacement revenue stream before any fare elimination can happen. Mamdani has acknowledged this constraint explicitly. The two leaders have agreed that free buses are conditional on finding alternative revenue to backfill what the MTA would lose from the fare box. The question is not whether both men agree on the precondition. They do. The question is where the money comes from. The Harvard Kennedy School’s Taubman Center for State and Local Government has noted that fare revenue from buses accounts for roughly $600 million annually and that this figure, while relatively small in the overall MTA budget, must be replaced to avoid service degradation.
The Millionaire Tax Connection
Mamdani’s path to free buses runs directly through Albany. His administration has proposed a 2 percent tax increase on New Yorkers earning more than $1 million per year. If enacted, this would generate several billion dollars annually, enough to fund both the city’s budget gap and replace MTA fare revenue. Governor Hochul has repeatedly declined to champion the millionaire tax. Without it, free buses depend on finding alternative revenue at either the city or state level. The administration has explored metered parking expansion, congestion pricing revenues, and other local tools, but none approaches the $600 million scale needed to replace bus fares entirely.
Fare Evasion: The Hidden Argument
New York City loses approximately $900 million per year in combined subway and bus fare evasion. On buses specifically, more than 700 people per minute were evading fares as of late 2025, costing the MTA tens of millions. The Citizens Budget Commission has documented that the bus fare evasion rate has reached 40 percent on some routes, with Select Bus Service lines exceeding 50 percent. Mamdani’s supporters argue that eliminating fares would effectively eliminate bus fare evasion, recovering a significant portion of the lost revenue through reduced enforcement costs, reduced conflict between riders and drivers, and faster boarding times that translate into operational savings. Critics note this arithmetic has never been fully validated in a large urban system. The MTA’s own pilot of fare-free routes showed ridership increases of roughly 30 percent on weekdays and 40 percent on weekends, but found that much of the increase came from existing riders taking more trips rather than large numbers of new riders entering the system.
Express Buses: The Complication Nobody Expected
In February 2026, Mamdani confirmed for the first time that his free bus promise applies to express buses as well. Express buses serve primarily outer borough neighborhoods with limited subway access, cost $7.25 each way, and have an average daily ridership of 60,000. Their fare evasion rate is the lowest of any bus type at 6.7 percent, meaning their riders are overwhelmingly paying customers who chose the higher-cost service for the comfort and speed it offers. The The City found that some express bus riders were skeptical of the free fare proposal, noting that the people who pay for the express bus fund the MTA and that eliminating their fares might change the character of a service they currently depend on.
The Streets Master Plan: Progress While the Bus Fight Continues
While the fare-free debate plays out, Mamdani has moved aggressively on what he can control: city streets. His administration has revived the Streets Master Plan, restarting four stalled bus and bike lane projects in the Bronx and Brooklyn. DOT Commissioner Mike Flynn has pledged to install 30 miles of bus lanes annually, a commitment the previous administration made and routinely failed to meet. Faster buses through better lane design is within the mayor’s unilateral authority. Free buses are not. For the 1 million daily bus riders who depend on the system, faster service is immediate. Free service is still a negotiation.
