Rising bills, aging power plants and a looming legal battle could force Albany to fundamentally rethink the 2019 Climate Act
A Green Law With Expensive Consequences
New York’s 2019 Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act was designed to be one of the most ambitious climate laws in the country. It set legally binding targets to cut greenhouse gas emissions by roughly one-quarter from 2019 levels by 2030 and to achieve an 85 percent reduction by 2050. Nearly seven years later, the law is increasingly viewed as an object lesson in what happens when policy ambition outpaces infrastructure reality. The costs are beginning to show up in ways that are hard to ignore.
The Grid Is Under Stress
According to a March 2026 analysis published by the Manhattan Institute’s City Journal, New York City may face difficulty keeping the lights on as soon as this coming June. The piece, written by researcher Ken Girardin, notes that state air quality regulations tied to ozone standards have already forced the closure of several dozen small “peaker” power plants — facilities that previously operated for a few hours during peak summer demand. Two power plants in Astoria that went offline during a June 2025 heat wave were built in 1954 and 1958. In December 2025, the state’s utility regulator, the Public Service Commission, ordered Con Edison to develop a contingency plan for New York City’s reliability margin. Critically, the PSC required that Con Edison consider only “non-emitting solutions” — meaning no new gas generation could be proposed as a bridge. It remains unclear how the company will manage the next sweltering weekday afternoon.
Bills Are Already Rising
Customers across New York have experienced sharp increases in electric bills. As of November 2025, average bills were up 7 percent over the prior year and 47 percent since 2019, according to state energy data. In greater Syracuse, some bills have more than doubled from 2019 levels. A state energy forecast published last year projected that electricity prices across upstate New York could rise at least an additional 40 percent in the next five years. The reasons include ratepayer-funded subsidies for wind and solar facilities, new transmission projects, and costs for offshore wind and a new power line under the Hudson River that have not yet reached customers’ bills.
The Fuel Price Time Bomb
Perhaps the most significant unresolved piece of the Climate Act is a set of regulations the state Department of Environmental Conservation was legally required to implement two years ago — and has not. Those regulations would impose costs on fossil fuels used in homes, businesses and vehicles. Earthjustice and allied environmental groups won at the trial court level in a lawsuit over the failure to implement those rules. If the state loses on appeal, it could be compelled to implement a carbon pricing mechanism that would immediately increase gasoline prices by an estimated $1.62 per gallon and cause similar increases on home heating oil, diesel and natural gas. Governor Hochul has resisted that outcome, calling it a threat to affordability for working and middle class families.
A Political Problem for Hochul
The governor is caught between environmental advocates who want the law enforced as written and an affordability-conscious public that is already struggling with high bills. The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority is tasked with coordinating the state’s clean energy transition and has argued that the long-term benefits of decarbonization justify near-term costs. Critics, including researchers at the Manhattan Institute, argue that the law as currently written is unworkable and that its defenders are in denial about the timeline and the toll. The debate is not academic. It is playing out in budget negotiations in Albany and in the courts, and its resolution will determine how much New Yorkers pay to heat their homes, power their apartments and keep the lights on in the years ahead.
