The U.S. Is Winning Big in Iran. Here’s What the Media Isn’t Telling You.
The U.S. military and Israel launched a massive war against Iran on February 28, 2026. Four weeks in, American forces have destroyed Iran’s entire air force, sunk about 120 Iranian ships, and cut Iran’s ability to launch ballistic missiles by 90 percent. But if you’ve been watching cable news, you might think the war is a disaster. It’s not. Here’s what’s actually happening.
Iran War Results: The Basic Facts
Here is what U.S. and Israeli forces have achieved since the start of the war, according to military analysts and independent tracking organizations:
- Iran’s air force has been completely destroyed.
- About 120 Iranian naval ships have been disabled or sunk.
- Roughly 70 percent of Iran’s ballistic missile launchers have been taken out.
- Iran’s missile launches are down 90 percent. Its drone attacks are down 95 percent.
- Around 40 senior Iranian leaders — generals, nuclear scientists, intelligence chiefs — were killed in the opening strikes.
- Iran’s network of terrorist groups across the Middle East — including militias in Iraq, Lebanon, and Yemen — has been severely damaged.
The Long War Journal, which tracks military operations, confirms these figures and describes the campaign as making “considerable progress” toward its goals.
Why This War Started
Iran has been developing nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles for decades. Despite international pressure, sanctions, and multiple rounds of diplomacy, the regime kept pushing forward. In June 2025, the U.S. and Israel conducted a smaller set of strikes — called Operation Midnight Hammer — on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iran tried to rebuild. It also brutally crushed civilian protests in December 2025 and January 2026, killing tens of thousands of its own citizens.
On February 28, 2026, President Trump announced — via Truth Social at 2:00 AM — that the U.S. had launched a full-scale military campaign. Defense Update reports that the operation was the largest U.S. military action in the Middle East since the Iraq War. It was carried out without a full vote in Congress, though the White House issued a War Powers notification.
Iran Retaliation: Real Damage, Limited Strategy
Iran has fought back. It launched missiles and drones at U.S. military bases in Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. It struck civilian targets including a girls’ school in the Iranian city of Minab — which many experts believe was a misfired Iranian weapon. It attempted to block the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway through which a large share of the world’s oil travels. Flashpoint’s conflict tracker documents multiple Iranian strikes on Gulf state infrastructure, including oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and ports in Oman.
Six U.S. service members have been confirmed killed. Oil prices rose above $114 per barrel — the highest since the COVID-19 pandemic.
But Iran’s retaliation has not changed the military picture in Iran’s favor. National Defense Magazine’s analysis of air and missile defense in the conflict found that U.S. and allied systems in the Gulf intercepted more than 90 percent of Iranian ballistic missiles. Gulf states made over 2,150 interceptions in the first two weeks alone.
Iran Military Morale Is Collapsing
Inside Iran, the military picture is getting worse for the regime. The Institute for the Study of War reported that Iran’s missile troops are refusing to report to launch sites because they’re afraid of being struck. Iran’s military leadership is in disarray — field commanders are acting on old orders because the command chain above them has been destroyed. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the opening strikes. His son, Mojtaba Khamenei, was elected as the new Supreme Leader on March 8, but has little established authority.
One unnamed Iranian civilian, speaking to the New York Post, said: “More than 90 percent of the people are grateful to Trump and thankful to the USA.” Another said people get worried when the bombing stops — because they fear a ceasefire will let the regime survive.
What Happens Next in the Iran War
The U.S. and Israel are now in what military planners call “phase two” — targeting Iran’s weapons factories, drone manufacturers, and missile production plants. The goal is to destroy not just Iran’s existing weapons, but its ability to build new ones.
Meanwhile, Trump has signaled interest in peace talks. He revealed on Monday that he is pursuing back-channel negotiations with Iranian representatives. Some analysts think this is a negotiating tactic. Others believe it reflects genuine pressure to end a war that is pushing up gas prices globally. Military commanders, however, have not changed their stated objectives: eliminate Iran’s missile, drone, and naval threats entirely.
The longer-term goal — acknowledged by both U.S. and Israeli officials — is to weaken the regime from within, to the point where the next popular uprising in Iran succeeds where previous ones have failed. Admiral Brad Cooper, head of U.S. Central Command, told reporters this week that the moment for Iranians to come out publicly has “not yet come,” but that a clear signal would be given.
The Bottom Line on Operation Epic Fury
The war has real costs — for the U.S. military, for the global economy, and for civilians on all sides. Those costs deserve honest reporting. But so do the results. By any objective military measure, the U.S. and Israel have achieved extraordinary tactical success against a country that, as recently as 2022, was considered one of the most formidable military powers in the region. The regime that chanted “Death to America” for four decades is now operating without an air force, without most of its missile arsenal, without its Supreme Leader, and without the terrorist network it spent decades building.
That is not a disaster. That is, at minimum, the beginning of something different.
Operation Epic Fury is the U.S. military’s codename for the joint U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran that began on February 28, 2026. The campaign targeted Iran’s nuclear program, missile infrastructure, naval forces, and senior leadership, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who was killed in the opening strikes. Iran retaliated by striking U.S. military bases across the Persian Gulf and attempting to disrupt oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. National Review senior writer Noah Rothman wrote on March 25, 2026, that the war’s significant military gains have been obscured by pessimistic media coverage that fails to measure progress against realistic alternatives.
