Governor distances herself as NYC faces a 9.5 percent hike that neither leader wants to defend
Nobody Wants to Be Seen Raising Your Property Tax
In the choreography of New York City fiscal politics, there is a move both leaders are currently performing with great precision: the mutual distancing shuffle. Governor Kathy Hochul does not want to be associated with a New York City property tax increase. Mayor Zohran Mamdani does not want to impose one. And yet a 9.5 percent property tax hike remains on the table as a fallback if Albany does not deliver new revenues. Someone will have to own it. Neither of them is volunteering.
Hochul’s Position in Her Own Words
When asked whether she would take responsibility for a property tax increase if Albany fails to pass the progressive tax measures Mamdani is seeking, Hochul was unambiguous. Reported by NY1, she told reporters directly: she would not take the fall for a Mamdani property tax hike. The framing was notable. The governor used the word “fall” – language that treats a property tax increase as a political liability to be avoided rather than a policy choice to be debated on its merits. Her position, stripped of diplomatic language, is that if Mamdani raises property taxes, that is Mamdani’s decision and Mamdani’s political consequence.
The Math That Creates the Dilemma
New York City faces a $5.4 billion budget gap. The Mamdani administration has proposed closing it through a combination of millionaire taxes and corporate tax increases that require Albany legislation. If those measures fail, the administration has identified a 9.5 percent property tax increase as a fallback that would generate meaningful revenue within the city’s own taxing authority without needing Albany’s approval. A Siena College poll found 54 percent of statewide voters and 62 percent of New York City voters prefer a millionaire tax over property tax increases when forced to choose. Those numbers are not subtle. The political environment strongly favors taxing the wealthy over taxing property owners. Hochul’s resistance to the millionaire tax approach is therefore politically puzzling to many observers who see the polling data.
The Albany Calendar and the Leverage Window
The New York State budget is due April 1. Both the Assembly and Senate are expected to include progressive tax increases in their one-house budget proposals, creating a formal legislative record that puts pressure on the governor to accept some version of those measures in the final negotiated budget. Mamdani’s team is using this window deliberately. By publicly framing the property tax hike as a consequence of Albany inaction, the mayor is creating political pressure on both the governor and the legislature to deliver an alternative. The Empire Center for Public Policy, which tracks New York fiscal policy from a fiscally conservative perspective, has noted that the property tax fallback is a credible threat precisely because it is within the mayor’s unilateral authority.
Who Actually Pays the Property Tax
Property tax increases in New York City are not distributed evenly. The city’s notoriously complex property tax system, which has been under reform discussion for decades, taxes Class 1 properties (primarily one-to-three family homes) differently than large residential buildings and commercial properties. A 9.5 percent increase hits small outer-borough homeowners, many of them working and middle class, harder in percentage terms than it hits large commercial landlords who can pass costs through to tenants or write them off against income. The Community Service Society has argued that the inequities in the existing property tax structure mean any increase amplifies existing unfairness unless paired with systemic reform. Mamdani has not yet announced a property tax reform alongside the potential increase, a gap advocates say needs to be addressed before any hike takes effect.
The Political Endgame
Both Mamdani and Hochul are maneuvering for a position where the other person makes the hard call. Hochul wants Albany to give Mamdani some new revenues, just not through a millionaire tax she views as economically risky. Mamdani wants the millionaire tax and is using the property tax threat to get it. The budget deadline will force a resolution. Until then, both leaders will continue to smile at joint press conferences and privately hope the other one blinks first.
