A childcare coalition and a property tax threat give the mayor unusual leverage in Albany
A Mayor With a Stick and a Carrot
Conventional Albany politics involves mayors coming to the state capital hat in hand, asking for funding and hoping the governor is in a generous mood. Mayor Zohran Mamdani is attempting something different: deploying a combination of progressive coalition pressure, a childcare coalition that spans borough lines, and the implicit threat of a politically toxic property tax hike to push Governor Kathy Hochul toward a wealth tax that she has so far declined to support. The strategy is not without risks. Hochul controls the state budget process. She is running for re-election. And she has shown no sign of wanting to make wealthy New Yorkers the centerpiece of her fiscal agenda. But Mamdani has a few cards to play that previous mayors lacked.
The Childcare Coalition
Mamdani’s commitment to universal childcare — Pre-K, 3-K, and now 2-K for two-year-olds — has built him a coalition of parents, advocates, educators, and community organizations that cuts across traditional political boundaries. More than 75,000 families have already applied for Pre-K and 3-K seats for the upcoming school year. The administration partnered with Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on a Spanish-language outreach campaign specifically aimed at immigrant families. And the 2-K expansion — the first in city history — is being funded in part by the state, creating a financial link between Hochul’s budget priorities and Mamdani’s programmatic agenda. The political logic: if you want to protect and expand universal childcare, you need the city’s budget to be solvent, which means you need a revenue solution that does not blow a hole in working families’ finances. The wealth tax is that solution.
The Property Tax as Political Leverage
Mamdani has been explicit: if Albany does not authorize a wealth tax on millionaires and corporations, the city will need to consider a property tax increase of approximately 9.5%. Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie has already declared that a property tax hike is a nonstarter. Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins has signaled support for progressive taxation. That legislative alignment gives Mamdani something to work with — legislators who would prefer to solve the city’s fiscal problem through wealth taxes rather than forcing their constituents to face property tax increases. The threat is real because the property tax option is real. Mamdani is not bluffing: if there is no wealth tax, the budget gap has to close somehow, and the property tax is the available lever. That makes the political calculus for Albany legislators straightforward: help Mamdani get a wealth tax, or explain to middle-class homeowners why their property taxes went up because Albany wouldn’t tax millionaires.
The Hochul Problem
The central obstacle is Governor Hochul herself. Her budget director has stated publicly that the state’s fiscal position is strong and does not require new taxes. Hochul is facing re-election and has positioned herself as a centrist who can work with business interests. A wealth tax on high earners is precisely the kind of policy she has avoided. Her political calculus is not unreasonable: wealthy donors are important to her campaign, and the economic case for a tax increase — while strong from a progressive perspective — is contested enough that she can credibly invoke economic uncertainty as a reason for caution. The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has published extensive research on state revenue options and the distributional effects of different tax structures.
What Mamdani Must Build to Win
The Albany strategy requires three things that Mamdani is only beginning to assemble. First, a broad public coalition that makes the political cost of inaction clear to Hochul — the 1,500-person rally in Albany was a start, but it is not yet a movement. Second, a business case for the wealth tax framed around the economic benefits of universal childcare and free transit — services that benefit every employer whose workers depend on them. Third, the willingness to stay the course through a budget process that will test every relationship the mayor has built. Whether Mamdani can deliver on the Albany front will determine whether his progressive governing vision survives contact with the fiscal and political realities of governing New York City.
