Budget crisis complicates campaign promise as MTA demands replacement revenue
When Mayor Zohran Mamdani campaigned on making buses “fast and free” for all New Yorkers, he tapped into deep frustration about transportation costs. For low-income New Yorkers, the three dollar fare represents meaningful expense. Yet weeks into his administration, Mamdani has discovered that delivering on this promise requires solving one of public finance’s hardest problems: replacing 600 million dollars in annual revenue without devastating transit service. The city already has one free bus routethe Q70 to LaGuardia Airportwhich Mamdani rode on his first weekend in office. The mayor was clear: expanding free buses to the entire system remains a priority. But conversations with MTA leadership have revealed the technical complexity of implementation. Unlike a mayoral directive, bus service falls under the state-controlled Metropolitan Transportation Authority, which requires replacement revenue before eliminating fares.
The Revenue Problem: 600 Million Dollars Looking for a Home
Express buses generate approximately 600 million dollars annually in fare revenue. Local buses produce additional fare income beyond this figure. This revenue funds operator salaries, vehicle maintenance, debt service on bonds for capital projects, and replacement vehicle purchases. The MTA operates on a break-even mandate: it cannot deficit spend and must balance its budget annually. Unlike general government functions, transit agencies cannot raise taxes independently. They depend on legislative appropriations and fare revenue. Eliminating fares without replacement revenue would force immediate service cuts: reduced frequency, eliminated routes, delayed maintenance, and deferred vehicle replacement. The MTA has warned explicitly that without replacement funding, free buses would degrade service quality. This creates a political paradox: making buses free might make them less attractive if service frequency declines.
Exploring Alternative Revenue: The Tax Increase Strategy
Mamdani’s administration has proposed using higher taxes on wealthy New Yorkers and corporations to fund free transit. The proposed 2 percent income tax increase on individuals earning over one million dollars would generate substantial revenue if approved by the state legislature. A 3 percent tax on commercial real estate or increases in payroll taxes for employers could also generate transit funding. Governor Hochul, however, has signaled resistance to any new taxes. She has indicated that free buses are not part of her budget plan “for at least the next year,” effectively blocking mayoral action on the issue during his current fiscal negotiations. The political dynamics pit Mamdani’s redistributive vision against Hochul’s more cautious approach. City officials are exploring congestion pricing expansion, parking meter revenue increases, and commercial vehicle registration fees as alternatives. None generate sufficient revenue alone to replace 600 million dollars, but combinations might approach the target.
The Fare Evasion Problem: Losing Money on Both Ends
Adding complexity is the fare evasion crisis. The Citizens Budget Commission calculated that over 700 people per minute evade bus fares citywide. Combined with subway evasion, the city loses approximately 900 million dollars annually in potential revenue. Express buses show low evasion rates (6.7 percent) because fare payment barriers exist and cameras monitor compliance. Local buses see 40 percent evasion on average, with Select Bus Service routes exceeding 50 percent evasion. Rather than moving toward free buses, the MTA has announced plans to hire fare compliance officers to check payment on board using handheld devices. This approach recognizes that increased enforcement generates revenue and maintains the existing system. Mamdani faces criticism from both directions: fare enforcement advocates argue that enforcement sustains transit funding, while fare abolitionists argue that enforcement alienates riders and criminalizes poverty.
What Makes Free Transit Possible Elsewhere: International Examples
Dozens of cities worldwide operate free public transit. Most are smaller European cities with different fiscal structures. Luxembourg made its entire national transit system free in 2020, funded through general taxation. The city of Tallinn, Estonia operates free transit for residents through municipal funding. France has experimented with free transit in Lyon and other cities, funded through regional taxes. None of these examples replicate New York’s scale or fiscal structure. The largest free transit system serves Paris during summer months through specially allocated funding. Operating a permanent free system for all 5.5 million daily transit riders in New York would require unprecedented funding levels.
The Express Bus Question: Will Wealthy Commuters Support Free Service?
Among the trickiest politics: express buses primarily serve wealthier commuters from Long Island and outer boroughs who currently pay 7.25 dollars each way. These riders fund the service and show high fare compliance. Making express buses free requires obtaining buy-in from these relatively affluent commuters who benefit from premium service and may resist losing that distinction. Mamdani confirmed for the first time that his free bus promise includes express buses. Some express bus riders argue they value the service specifically because it is premium and less crowded. Free access might undermine the speed benefits that justify the current fare.
The Q70 Model: What One Free Bus Line Reveals
The single existing free bus to LaGuardia provides a test case for expanded free transit. Service has expanded under Mamdani, but maintenance records do not show service quality degradation. Daily ridership is substantial, suggesting genuine demand for free transit. Workers traveling to LaGuardia jobs, family members visiting the airport, and low-income New Yorkers avoiding the 3 dollar fare all utilize the service. Yet the Q70 operates within a larger system where most buses require payment, limiting comparative analysis.
The Timeline: When Might Free Buses Arrive?
Mamdani and MTA Chairman Janno Lieber have agreed to continue discussions. No timeline exists for implementation. Both officials acknowledge that free buses cannot happen without replacement revenue. The mayor has indicated his administration will develop a “flesh out proposal” with specific funding mechanisms. This might arrive in spring budget negotiations, during which state revenue measures are typically discussed. However, if the state legislature continues resisting new taxes, free buses will remain promise rather than policy.
Alternative Approaches: Fare Subsidies for Low-Income Riders
One interim approach gaining traction is expanding the Fair Fares program, which offers half-price transit to low-income New Yorkers. The program currently applies to individuals earning 150 percent of the federal poverty level, approximately 23 thousand dollars annually for single individuals. Expanding this threshold to 300 percent of poverty would cover workers earning up to 46 thousand dollars, encompassing most city workers. The expansion would cost 125 to 155 million dollars, far less than 600 million required for universal free transit. Mamdani has not committed to Fair Fares expansion, though it remains politically feasible without state action.
The Accountability Question: Setting Realistic Expectations
Mamdani’s challenge is managing expectations. Promising free buses energized voters and reflected genuine policy commitment. Yet implementation requires resources and political support that may not materialize. Advocates are holding the administration accountable to this promise. Groups like the Riders Alliance have mobilized support for free transit and will pressure City Hall throughout the budget process. Early signal suggests Mamdani will pursue the issue persistently. The question is whether he can generate sufficient political pressure on Albany to unlock new tax revenue. See the MTA official fare information and current service details. Review the MTA legal status to understand governance structure.
