Mikie Sherrill has advice for Democrats in 2026

Sherrill’s Latino Reversal Blueprint

Campaign memo details how Democrats recaptured voters who swung 25+ points toward Trump in 2024

The numbers

In Passaic City (73% Latino), Trump won 52% in 2024 versus 23% in 2016—a 29-point swing right

In 2025, Sherrill won Passaic County by 15 points after Trump took it by 3 points in 2024—an 18-point reversal in one year

16% of Passaic County precincts flipped from Trump 2024 to Sherrill 2025, with zero flips the other direction. Areas with larger Latino populations saw the biggest leftward swings

Why it matters

Trump became the first GOP presidential candidate to win Passaic County in over 30 years. Sherrill proved those gains weren’t permanent—and provides a roadmap for reversing them nationally.

The three-part strategy

1. Ultra-specific economic messaging

Sherrill’s campaign focused on three concrete issues: reducing utility costs, investing in small businesses, and tackling rising rents

• Not generic “affordability” but actual line items hitting Latino households
• One assemblyman said a constituent voted Trump because “Democrats were focusing too much on bathrooms” instead of feeding families

2. Physical presence, not just ads

Passaic Mayor Hector Lora: “She spent time in Passaic. She spoke to business owners. She paused and stopped and spoke to people on the streets. She not only spoke to the Latino community, she listened to the Latino community”

Sherrill campaigned with local Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou, sprinkling Spanish into speeches

3. Creator-driven media strategy

Sherrill appeared on 18 podcasts, reaching 4.1 million Americans weekly versus Ciattarelli’s 972,000

She worked with Instagram influencers including “You Don’t Know Jersey” (37,000 followers), did bagel tastings, and created an “online ambassador” program training supporters to share campaign content

Campaign memo: “We offered special creator access at major events, held briefings and calls with creators, communicated with national creators for amplification”

The Trump factor

Trump’s favorable rating among Hispanics nationally dropped from 44% in January 2025 to 25% by October 2025

In Virginia, 65% of Latino voters disapproved of Trump; in New Jersey, 57% disapproved. Six in 10 said Trump’s immigration actions went too far

Many Trump Latino voters stayed home in 2025, others switched sides, and new voters broke heavily Democratic

What didn’t work for Republicans

Trump’s success didn’t translate down-ballot—most Democratic legislators put up double-digit overperformances compared to Harris, “partially due to Trump-supporting Hispanics voting for Trump and leaving the rest of the ballot empty”

While Passaic County chose Trump, they also elected Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou, making her one of only 13 Democrats nationwide representing a Trump-won district

The Virginia parallel

Democrats flipped at least 13 Virginia House seats, expanding from 51 to 64 seats—their largest majority since 1987

Spanberger won 67% of Virginia’s Hispanic vote. In Manassas and Manassas Park (40%+ Latino), voters who swung hard for Trump in 2024 turned out for Spanberger in 2025

Reality check

Some Black voters criticized Sherrill for being too vague: “I don’t want to bring President Trump into this conversation, but…he’s doing what he says he’s going to do. That’s what New Jerseyans expect”

Democratic strategist on Sherrill: “Do I think she could have done more in the beginning? Absolutely. Do I think she’s adjusted and pivoted? Yeah”

Between the lines

The reversal happened in deep-blue New Jersey and Virginia, not purple battlegrounds. The real test: whether this works in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania in 2026.

Campaign manager Alex Ball’s takeaway: “When you understand who your electorate is, and you communicate with them, they respond. That is the key to winning in 2026 and beyond”