Data reveals declining overall youth crime but concerning uptick in gun-related offenses among minors
Overall Youth Crime Declines Despite Political Rhetoric
New data from the Mayor’s Office of Criminal Justice indicates that youth involvement in New York City crime has not increased as dramatically as some officials have claimed since the 2018 Raise the Age law took effect. The legislation, which raised the age of criminal responsibility from 16 to 18, has been blamed by critics including NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch for creating a consequence-free environment for young offenders. However, the December 2025 report shows that in 2024, the youth share of citywide felony and violent felony arrests remained the same as in 2018, with youth accounting for approximately 9 percent of major crime arrests. According to research from John Jay College Research and Evaluation Center, youth under 18 now represent just 23 percent of violent crime arrests in 2025, down from 30 percent in 2015 and 43 percent in 2006. The report notes that youth recidivism rates for felony, violent, and serious violent offenses are stable or decreasing, contradicting claims of a youth crime wave.
Gun Violence Among Youth Presents Serious Concern
While overall youth crime statistics show improvement, one area demands urgent attention. Youth-involved shootings have more than doubled as a percentage of all shootings, rising from 8 percent in 2017 to 18 percent in 2024. Gun arrests for those under 18 increased by 136 percent since 2018, reaching 486 arrests in 2024, a quarter-century record according to NYPD data. The Brookings Institution notes that youth gun violence has emerged as a distinct challenge requiring targeted interventions beyond traditional juvenile justice reforms. The 2025 data shows 652 shootings citywide with 111,878 major felonies overall, meaning shootings represent a small fraction of total crime. Nevertheless, the youth gun violence trend clashes dramatically with overall declines in shootings and substantially outpaces general youth crime increases.
Law’s Structure Remains Unchanged for Serious Crimes
Critics of Raise the Age often overlook a crucial detail about how the law actually works. Teenagers charged with serious violent felonies including murder, attempted murder and first-degree robbery continue to be prosecuted in adult court with adult sentencing, exactly as they were before 2018. The law primarily affected how 16- and 17-year-olds accused of less serious crimes are handled, moving them from automatic adult prosecution to the juvenile justice system. Research from the Centers for Disease Control found that trying children as adults increases their likelihood of reoffending by 34 percent on average. Despite this evidence, some policymakers are considering expanding adult prosecution for teenagers, which would primarily affect youth accused of non-violent offenses whose crime rates are declining. The number of youth arrested for serious violent felonies has increased from 136 in 2018 to 344 in 2024, but this represents a tiny fraction of the 1.7 million youth under 18 in New York City.
Implementation Challenges and Funding Shortfalls
The state committed $1.5 billion in aid to local jurisdictions for services related to Raise the Age implementation, but funding has fallen short of actual needs, particularly in New York City’s five boroughs. Understanding recent changes in juvenile arrests requires more comprehensive data than currently available. Critical questions remain unanswered, including whether recidivism rates are rising, how many arrests involve first-time versus persistent offenders, the prevalence of multiple-offender crimes, and where and for what offenses youth are being placed. According to Vital City, without this data, policymakers risk disproportionately focusing enforcement resources on a demographic that accounts for less than 10 percent of major crime arrests. The law’s implementation has been complicated by pandemic disruptions, staffing challenges in youth facilities, and political opposition from law enforcement leaders who opposed the legislation before and after its passage. Mayor Eric Adams’ administration has faced criticism for its approach to youth justice, with some advocates arguing that rhetoric about youth crime creates more problems than it solves while diverting attention from evidence-based solutions.
