Manhattan luxury market contradicts “Mamdani effect” predictions as signed contracts over $4 million jump 25% post-election
The Prophesied Exodus That Never Materialized
Pre-election predictions of mass millionaire flight from New York City following Zohran Mamdani’s victory have proven dramatically overblown, with Manhattan luxury real estate data showing the opposite trend. Real estate brokers who warned in September of imminent wealth migration and suburban flight now report sustained demand among high-net-worth buyers. Luxury home sales data contradicts early panic narratives suggesting democratic socialist governance would trigger capital flight to Westchester, Florida, and New Jersey.
Signed contracts for Manhattan homes priced above $4 million rose to 176 in November, representing a 25% increase from October’s 141 deals, according to Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel data. This trend accelerated post-election despite pre-vote warnings from Westchester real estate agents describing a “spike” in Manhattan residents inquiring about suburban properties after Mamdani won the June primary.
Data Versus Anecdotal Panic
Real estate executives have revised earlier doom narratives. Donna Olshan, president of Olshan Realty, told Bloomberg: “There is no Mamdani effect. The idea that people would flee New York was overblown. The numbers just aren’t bearing that out.” Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel, emphasized year-long trends contradicting migration narratives: “Throughout 2025 on a year-over-year basis, overall sales have risen, prices have risen, sales have risen faster than inventory, rents have risen, rental activity has risen, and especially in October and November.”
Miller criticized the migration narrative as “classic misinformation scenario, where no one’s looking at actual data.” While earlier reporting described a “torrent” of wealthy New Yorkers abandoning the city, subsequent analysis reveals sustained investment in premium Manhattan real estate despiteor perhaps because ofMamdani’s victory signaling political transformation and heightened media attention to the city.
