Nearly 60 Percent of Immigrant Voters Say Trump’s Immigration Enforcement Has Impacted Their Political Party Support
Trump’s Immigration Policies Driving Major Political Realignment Among Immigrant Voters
A groundbreaking survey conducted by the Kaiser Family Foundation and the New York Times reveals significant political realignment occurring among immigrant voters, with nearly six in ten saying the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement actions have impacted which political party they support–including over four in ten reporting major impacts on their partisan alignment.
The findings show that immigrant voters represent a significant and increasingly mobile electoral constituency, with shifting views of both parties reflecting broader reactions to immigration policy implementation. Over 24 million naturalized citizens are eligible to vote in the United States, representing approximately one in ten eligible voters overall, making these political shifts potentially consequential for future electoral outcomes.
Partisan Division Reflects Broader Political Polarization
The survey reveals mixed partisan identity among immigrant voters overall, with about one quarter identifying as Republicans, just over one third identifying as Democrats, and four in ten saying they are either independent or don’t identify with either major party. However, stark divisions emerge when examining views of President Trump’s immigration policies specifically.
According to the KFF/New York Times data, immigrant voters overwhelmingly disapprove of specific immigration enforcement actions. Large majorities disapprove of deporting immigrants to countries they are not from (80 percent), efforts to end birthright citizenship (69 percent), and the use of masked and plainclothes agents in immigration enforcement activities (67 percent).
Republican Immigrant Voters Express Significant Reservations
Even among Republican immigrant voters, significant opposition to certain policies emerges. Half of Republican immigrant voters disapprove of deporting immigrants to countries they are not from, and more than four in ten disapprove of efforts to end birthright citizenship. This suggests that consensus on immigration enforcement approaches is not universal even among partisan supporters of the administration.
The political implications are substantial. According to analysis from the Kaiser Family Foundation, when immigrant voters describe how Trump’s immigration policies have impacted their party support, larger shares express views reflecting negative views of these policies or shifts away from Republicans (36 percent) than express views in support of these policies or the Republican party (19 percent).
Feelings of Safety and Confidence in Justice System Split Sharply
The survey also documents striking partisan divides regarding feelings of personal safety and confidence in the justice system. Over half of Republican immigrant voters (55 percent) say they feel safer since President Trump took office and are confident they would receive fair treatment by the U.S. justice system if detained on immigration-related charges.
In contrast, nearly three-quarters of Democratic immigrant voters (73 percent) report feeling less safe under the Trump administration and seven in ten are “not very” or “not at all confident” they would be treated fairly by the justice system. Independent immigrant voters are more divided on this question, with approximately four in ten reporting feeling less safe.
Future Electoral Implications Uncertain
The political realignment occurring among immigrant voters carries potential implications for future electoral contests at all levels. As the survey documents, immigrant voters now more frequently say immigrants were better off under President Biden than President Trump compared to 2023 data–with half (49 percent) now expressing this view, up from one third in 2023.
These shifting political allegiances and assessments of policy performance among the nation’s rapidly growing immigrant voter population represent a dynamic electoral force that candidates and parties will need to address in coming election cycles. The question of whether Democratic candidates can successfully consolidate opposition to Trump immigration policies among immigrant voters, and whether Republican candidates can retain support despite concerns about specific enforcement approaches, will likely shape competitive races across numerous jurisdictions.
