Multi-Way Democratic Primary Brewing for Mamdani’s Former Assembly Seat

Three DSA members file to run as Queens Democratic Party eyes potential special election opening

A Crowded Progressive Field

The race to succeed Zohran Mamdani in Assembly District 36 is shaping up as a multi-way battle among democratic socialists, with the Queens Democratic Party establishment potentially waiting in the wings. Three DSA members have filed to run: Diana Moreno, Mary Jobaida, and Rana Abdelhamid–setting up an intra-movement competition for one of the most progressive seats in the state legislature.

According to Queens Daily Eagle reporting, Moreno received overwhelming support at a DSA candidate forum, with approximately 96% of members voting to back her candidacy. However, Jobaida has indicated she won’t drop out despite lacking organizational support, accusing the endorsement process of “discrimination” in a social media post.

The Candidates

Diana Moreno: The Establishment Pick

Moreno, a lifelong activist and former deputy director at NICE, an immigration nonprofit, represents DSA’s preferred candidate. She worked closely with Mamdani on his mayoral campaign after initially saying no when approached about running herself. Her biography mirrors Mamdani’s in some ways–an immigrant who came to the United States as a child, found community in Queens, and built a career in progressive organizing.

Her top priority is universal childcare, calling it “deeply personal” given her experience as a parent of a 14-month-old child facing exorbitant childcare costs. She also emphasizes affordable housing and tenants’ rights, particularly important in a district that includes the Queensbridge, Ravenswood, and Astoria NYCHA complexes–together the largest public housing development in the country.

Moreno received what amounted to a coronation at the DSA forum, where she was the only candidate to appear. This suggests organizational leaders view her as the strongest general election candidate and want to avoid a divisive primary. In a photo DSA used for her endorsement announcement, Mamdani can be seen clapping in the background–a subtle signal of his support.

Mary Jobaida: The Outsider

Jobaida, who has run for office before, expressed frustration at not being included in the endorsement forum. “I am here to fight for authentic representation of the people who have lived here for decades and continue to face the ongoing challenges of gentrification, as well as to stand up for immigrants’ rights,” she told the Eagle.

Her framing suggests she views herself as representing longtime residents versus newer arrivals like Moreno. This distinction could matter in a district experiencing rapid gentrification, where tensions sometimes exist between earlier waves of immigrants and more recent arrivals, or between longtime residents and newcomers drawn by the area’s progressive politics.

Jobaida’s decision to remain in the race despite lacking DSA endorsement means Moreno cannot count on unified progressive support. If Jobaida performs well in certain neighborhoods or among specific demographic groups, she could complicate Moreno’s path to victory.

Rana Abdelhamid: The Unknown Factor

Abdelhamid, a nonprofit leader who ran for Congress in 2022 before redistricting moved her out of the district she intended to contest, represents the biggest unknown in the race. She could not be reached for comment by the Eagle, leaving her campaign strategy and policy positions unclear.

Abdelhamid’s previous congressional run demonstrated ambition and fundraising ability, but also ended without her facing voters due to redistricting. Her entrance into the Assembly race suggests she’s looking for an alternative path to elected office. Whether she runs a serious campaign or withdraws before election day remains to be seen.

The Special Election Wild Card

Mamdani’s vacating of the seat will likely trigger a special election, creating an opening for the Queens Democratic Party to attempt reclaiming a seat they lost when Mamdani primaried Aravella Simotas in 2020. Special elections typically see lower turnout, which can benefit establishment candidates with institutional resources and name recognition from party endorsements.

According to QNS, the Queens Democratic organization has not ruled out running a candidate in a potential special election. While they’re unlikely to win a regular Democratic primary in this heavily progressive district, a special election with low turnout and multiple DSA candidates splitting the vote could provide an opportunity.

The mechanics would work as follows: Mamdani takes office as mayor on January 1, triggering a vacancy. Governor Kathy Hochul then calls a special election, likely within 90 days. That special election would occur before the regular June 2026 primary, giving the Queens Democratic Party a chance to install their candidate before progressive turnout machinery fully mobilizes.

The DSA Dilemma

If three DSA members all remain in a special election, they could split the progressive vote sufficiently to allow a Queens Democratic Party candidate to win with a plurality. This scenario would be disastrous for DSA, undoing their hard-won victory in the district and demonstrating the limits of their electoral strategy.

DSA leadership is likely pressuring Jobaida and Abdelhamid to withdraw or defer to Moreno. However, without formal party structures to enforce such decisions, DSA must rely on persuasion and movement solidarity–which may not prove sufficient if candidates believe they have independent bases of support.

The “People’s Republic of Astoria”

District 36 holds symbolic importance beyond its single Assembly vote. Mamdani won 70% of the mayoral vote in this district, demonstrating overwhelming progressive support. The district overlaps with areas represented by City Council Member Tiffany Cabán, State Senator Kristen Gonzalez, and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez–making it the only place in the country represented by democratic socialists at all levels of government.

Losing this seat would be a significant blow to DSA’s narrative of building progressive power through geographic concentration. It would also raise questions about whether the movement can hold onto gains once charismatic leaders like Mamdani move on to higher office.

According to analysis from City & State New York, maintaining the “People’s Republic of Astoria” requires DSA to demonstrate organizational discipline and strategic thinking beyond simply running candidates. They must manage primaries, prevent vote-splitting, and ensure smooth transitions when officials move to different offices.

Learning from Past Mistakes

Progressive movements have lost winnable races due to multiple candidates splitting the vote. In the 2021 Manhattan District Attorney race, several progressive candidates divided support, allowing moderate Alvin Bragg to win with a plurality. DSA is acutely aware of this history and likely working behind the scenes to prevent a repeat.

However, individual ambition can override movement loyalty. If Jobaida or Abdelhamid believe they can win, or if they prioritize their own political futures over organizational preferences, they may refuse to withdraw regardless of pressure from DSA leadership.

Policy Implications

Beyond the political intrigue, the race will determine who represents one of New York’s most progressive districts on issues like housing, immigration, climate change, and economic policy. While all three DSA candidates likely share broadly similar positions, their personal experiences and priorities differ.

Moreno’s emphasis on childcare, given her experience as a parent of a young child, could shape her legislative priorities. Jobaida’s framing around longtime residents and gentrification suggests she might focus more on tenant protections and opposing displacement. Abdelhamid’s background in nonprofit work could influence her approach to social services and community development.

The district deserves representation that can effectively advance progressive policy in Albany. The question is whether DSA’s preferred candidate is actually the strongest advocate for constituents, or whether one of her opponents might prove more effective despite lacking organizational backing.

The Endorsement Process Question

Jobaida’s accusation of “discrimination” in the endorsement process raises legitimate questions about how DSA makes decisions. If only one candidate was invited to the forum, was the process designed to ratify a predetermined choice rather than genuinely evaluate all options? Did DSA leaders decide in advance that Moreno was their candidate and structure the process accordingly?

Organizational endorsements always involve some degree of insider maneuvering. However, if members perceive the process as rigged, it can undermine movement cohesion and create lasting resentment. DSA will need to address these concerns to maintain credibility as a democratic organization rather than a top-down political machine.

Looking Ahead

The timeline for this race remains uncertain pending Governor Hochul’s decision on when to call a special election. If she delays calling it, the special election could occur close to the regular primary, potentially allowing one election to serve both purposes. If she calls it quickly, DSA faces the challenge of mobilizing for multiple elections in rapid succession.

Moreno expressed confidence about DSA’s ability to hold the seat: “It would just be an honor to sort of follow in [Mamdani’s] footsteps.” However, honor and electoral victory are not the same thing. DSA must demonstrate they can manage complex intra-movement dynamics while fending off establishment challenges.

The race will serve as an early test of whether Mamdani’s victory represents a sustainable shift in New York politics or a one-time phenomenon built around his unique appeal. If DSA can successfully navigate this succession, it will demonstrate organizational maturity. If they stumble, losing the seat to vote-splitting or establishment maneuvering, it will raise serious questions about the movement’s durability beyond individual candidates.